Ian's 2024-2025 NHL Predictions and Season Preview
A New Twist On a Classic
I know what you’re thinking, Ian. Isn’t it way too early to do a season preview? In the traditional sense, yes. However, I wanted to try something new and different. And yes, there is a good chance that a lot of what I am about to write will be wrong and make me look moronic this time next year. But that’s most writers anyway, so I’m not all that different.
The idea for this project came in 2019 when my buddies and I watched the Bruins vs. Blues Finals at Boston Pizza in Squamish. I couldn’t tell you what game it was, but I remember my friend Arman getting a salad, and we made fun of him for it. Boston Pizza is barely a spot where you get pizza, never mind a salad.
Anyway, I told my friends how hockey is so odd and stupid that the 2020 Finals would feature a few random teams. I then blurted out that the New York Islanders and Dallas Stars would be playing for the cup next year, and everyone laughed. Flash forward, and the two teams playing in the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals were the Dallas Stars and the Tampa Bay Lighting. The Islanders lost in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games, including an OT loss in Game 6.
So, yes, I am doing a piece on a prediction I made five years ago that turned out to be wrong a year later but was so close to being correct for so long. That’s what I am hoping to do here, and by this time next year, I’ll be 100% accurate. I’ll share my hot takes, underrated and overrated teams, and other opinions in this post. Ultimately, I will give my 2025 Stanley Cup Finals finalists pick and who will win. So let’s get started.
Hot Take #1: Mitch Marner Will Play Out His Contract as a Maple Leaf
Mitch Marner is in a unique situation. He has one year left on his current contract with a cap hit of nearly $11 million ($10,903,000) but is owed just $8.025 million in total salary. Marner also has a No-Movement Clause, so any potential trade in which the Toronto Maple Leafs would want to include him would need his approval. There’s so much leg work to be done that I see the Leafs holding onto Marner until he is a free agent on July 1, 2025.
For the Leafs, keeping Marner isn’t as bad as the media will let you believe. The worst thing is you let him walk and open $11 million in cap space next year. Would it be nice to pieces in return? Absolutely. But you must play the card you’re dealt if you’re GM Brad Treliving. Marner has leverage with his NMC; if he doesn’t want to leave, he doesn’t have to. And for Toronto, cap space is still an asset, especially if the Leafs can find ways to create more.
Ultimately, I don’t see the Leafs re-signing Marner unless a pay cut is taken. I think the best-case scenario for both sides is he scores 100 points this season, has a decent postseason, and gets a big deal in free agency. Things might change if Toronto wins the cup or gets to the finals, but that isn’t happening. So, let him cook in a contract year and see what happens. That’s the move here if I’m Treliving.
Hot Take #2: The Seattle Kraken Will Improve in 2024-25
Following a 100-point season and a trip to the second round in 2023-24, the Seattle Kraken nose-dived this past year. They finished 34-35-13 with 81 points and had a -19 goal differential. It was a disappointing season for many reasons, and as a result, the Kraken fired head coach Dave Hakstol on April 29. Coachella Valley Firebirds (Seattle’s AHL affiliate) head coach Dan Bylsma will take over as Kraken head coach next year. But hey, at least the Winter Classic was sick.
According to the soon-closing site CapFriendly, Seattle has over $20 million in cap space to work with. Guys like Matthew Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen (both RFAs) will get extensions this summer, but no one is breaking the bank. There should be enough to get another scorer, a D-man, and even a goalie to take a flier on.
I think the Kraken are closer to being a playoff team than rebuilding. Another year of development for Tye Kartye, Shane Wright, and Ryker Evans will make the team successful. But overall, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Seattle finish with more than 81 points and compete for a wild card spot. Otherwise, don’t be surprised to see the Kraken look at replacing Ron Francis at GM.
Hot Take #3: Connor Bedard Will Have 90 Points Next Season
I don’t know if this is a traditional “hot take,” but it feels like it. Maybe it’s more mild? But after a reasonably successful rookie season (68 GP, 22 G, 61 PTS), don’t be surprised if Bedard kicks it up a notch next year.
Even though Bedard missed 14 games last season (from this awkward Brendan Smith hit), his numbers met the expectations of the first-year player. He had 22 goals, a 19:47 TOI/G, and a 10.7 shooting percentage. Those are all sustainable figures that people should pencil in for next season, but even more goals. Bedard took 206 total shots this season, and assuming he’s healthy and shoots more than three shots per game, he should be a 30-goal scorer.
I think Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson did a solid job managing Bedard for his first year. In year two, it’s time for Richardson to let Bedzy run wild and carry the show. Chicago also has over $30 million in cap space this summer, so don’t be shocked if they add some offense to help Bedard and company. If so, a 90-point season is incoming.
Overrated Teams Entering 2024-25
Vancouver Canucks
Sorry guys. It was fun while it lasted. After the Canucks finished with 109 points, their highest total since 2011-12, I see them taking a step back this upcoming season.
Right now, Vancouver has several questions, including support for Elias Petersson and rounding out the d-core. They also have approximately $24 million in cap space. It’s a lot of pressure for the team that gave up the fourth fewest goals last season.
Maybe they find guys to fill in the aggregate (i.e., Moneyball). But I have doubts and will be surprised if they get 100 points again. Quinn Hughes might have to get 100 assists himself to repeat the success Vancouver had this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
DraftKings currently has the Leafs at +1600 odds to win the Stanley Cup. First of all, LOL. Second, those odds are better than the New Jersey Devils, Boston Bruins, and Tampa Bay Lightning. All of those teams have a better chance of winning the cup, in my eyes, but these are the same eyes that require glasses, so take it for what it’s worth.
The Leafs have the worst vibes of any team right now. They got eliminated (again) in Game 7 (again) by the Bruins (again) in the first round (again) this postseason. Joseph Woll is the only goalie under contract for next season, and they still need to sign two more defensemen. Meanwhile, they’re bringing in Craig Berube to coach the Leafs, and they’ll have to learn a new system—also, the Marner stuff, as seen above.
Toronto is likely going to make the playoffs again. Their roster is good enough to do so. However, while the goal should be Stanley Cup or bust, they will likely finish third in the Atlantic again and get eliminated in the first round. Anything more, and I’ll be completely shocked.
New York Rangers
If they were winning the cup, this was the year. But they didn’t. Instead, they shit the bed when it mattered most and were about as clutch as I was at an off-campus SFU party in my sophomore year. Let’s say the weather app got a lot of screen time.
The best thing the Rangers have going for them is Igor Shesterkin. Unfortunately for New York, he has one year at $5.6 million left before he’s a UFA on July 1, 2025. And he would be dumb to take anything less than $10 million in salary. Otherwise, there’s a crease in Detroit that would LOVE to have him.
It’s also not great when the most memorable part of your season was a 21-year-old sixth-round pick having to fight his way onto the team. But hey, there’s No Quit in NY or whatever the slogan is. There is no shot this team will win the President’s Trophy again. If you want to root for an authentic New York hockey team, go to Long Island.
Underrated Teams Entering 2024-25
Detroit Red Wings
In case you don’t know, I am a Red Wings fan. So, this is a bit of a biased pick. You can mock me all you want, but I am confident that Detroit will make the playoffs next season. They would have this season if they didn’t play like a Whistler Peewee house team in March.
The most significant task for GM Steve Yzerman this summer is extending Lucas Raymond and Mortiz Seider. Both are RFAs this summer and should have no trouble getting deals. Yzerman should sign them to long-term contracts, not just because they’re good players, but because it’s a sign that the rebuild is going well in Hockeytown.
In addition, I like Detroit running it back with Alex Lyon and Ville Husso in the net. Assuming they can provide .900 save percentages (both have career save percentages over .900), the Red Wings will compete for at least a wild card spot. Jump on the bandwagon now before it’s too late.
New Jersey Devils
Getting a head coach like Sheldon Keefe is a step in the right direction for New Jersey. Of the Devils' top-15 goal scorers last season, only two finished with a positive plus-minus (Curtis Lazar: +10 and Michael McLeod: +6). Bringing in Keefe should improve the team's defence and make them more challenging to play against. However, I still have two questions about the Devils heading into next season that will make or break them.
First is goaltending. Last season, the Devils had five goalies who made at least five starts. They got a combined .900 save percentage from them; frankly, that’s not good enough. Jake Allen is the only primary roster goalie under contract next season, but I expect some combination of Nico Daws and Akira Schmid (both RFAs) to be back. Those guys must be better for New Jersey to be a contender next year.
The second is health. Jack Hughes missed 20 games last season, Dougie Hamilton only played 20 games, and Timo Meier underwent shoulder surgery after the season but should be ready for training camp. If the Devils can get full seasons (or close to it) from all of those guys and improved goaltending, as I mentioned earlier, they’re not just a playoff team but a potential cup team.
Utah NHL Team
Right off the bat, all of their potential names suck. There is no good name for the Utah NHL Team. Just call them Hockey Club or HC because all of the other ones suck ass. If they choose Blizzard, Outlaws or Yeti, I will root against this team actively.
On the ice, there’s lots to like. Sure, they might not have any active defenseman signed this upcoming season. However, they have $43 million in cap space, a good prospect pool, and seven picks in the top 100 of this year’s draft. There’s no reason for them to be quiet this offseason.
I believe making the playoffs is a reasonable goal for Utah. Andre Tourigny is one of the most underrated coaches and has improved his team’s win total in his last three seasons as head coach. While I did say I would actively root against Utah, depending on the name, I wouldn’t root against Connor Ingram. He is one of my favourite players, and I wish him nothing but the best. So, don’t sleep on the Utah NHL Team this season.
Other 2024-25 Predictions That May or May Not Come True
The Colorado Avalanche will win the Presidents’ Trophy
All but two teams who made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year will return next year (NY Islanders and Washington miss out; New Jersey and Detroit will make it instead)
All but three teams who made the playoffs in the Western Conference this year will return next year (Winnipeg, LA, and Nashville miss out; St. Louis, Seattle, and Utah will make it instead)
Connor McDavid will lead the NHL in points next season (Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Leon Draisaitl will round out the top five in that order)
Macklin Celebrini will win the Calder Trophy, but Cutter Gauthier will make it close
The Montreal Canadiens won’t finish last in the Atlantic Division (looking at you, Ottawa)
The NHL 4 Nations Face-Off will be fine (even though there should be a yearly World Baseball Classic-style event every other year the Olympics aren’t on)
Fanatics will suck ass at making hockey jerseys
Eric Tulsky will win the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award with the Hurricanes.
Steven Stamkos will be a Red Wing, Jake Guentzel will be a Blackhawk, and Sammy Blais will still be Quebecois (and definitely not incestual)
My 2024-25 Stanley Cup Prediction
It is the moment everyone has been waiting for. In the WCF, the Dallas Stars will beat the Vegas Golden Knights in six games to win the West. Even with Joe Pavelski retiring, the Stars have one of the best rosters in the NHL. It's the same with Vegas. In a rematch of this year’s first-round matchup, Dallas will take down Vegas and advance to their first Stanley Cup Finals since 2020.
Out east, I believe the Boston Bruins will take down the New Jersey Devils in five games to make the finals. Although the Bruins are an older team, I like their core pieces and think they can still cause damage in the playoffs. New Jersey will go on a run similar to 2023 but fall short against Boston's toughness. And I guarantee that one of these teams will beat Toronto in the first round to get to the ECF.
I think the Stars and Bruins will go toe-to-toe in the finals for seven games. Both barns will be rocking, and the series will be an all-timer. However, I’m going with the Stars because they have the better goalie with Jake Oettinger between the pipes. Regardless, it should be a classic Stanley Cup Finals.
Prediction: Stars over Bruins in 7